How Bill Ackman’s Main Fund Is Up 25% in 2025 —

Thanks to Two Big Wins

Bill Ackman is having a standout year. His flagship fund, Pershing Square Holdings, has delivered a year-to-date return of ~25%, significantly ahead of major indexes such as the S&P 500. What’s driving this performance? Two major investments: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Below is a breakdown of how these positions have transformed the fund’s returns — and what risks remain.

Pershing Square’s 2025 Performance: By the Numbers

Pershing Square Holdings (ticker PSHZF in the U.S.) has returned about 25.3% so far this year, on a net asset value basis.
That beats the S&P 500, which has returned ~11.7% over the same period.
The fund is concentrated: only a handful of large bets are doing a lot of the heavy lifting.

The Two Key Investments

1. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

These two government‐sponsored mortgage giants have been by far the biggest contributors.
Shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have each more than quadrupled in 2025.
Ackman’s fund has an estimated ≈ 180 million shares combined of the two, including ~115 million of Fannie Mae.
That stake has translated into billions of dollars in gains. Barron’s estimates about $2 billion in profits from those positions this year alone.
The rise has been driven largely by hopes and speculation that Fannie and Freddie may exit federal conservatorship, change policy regime, or be reformed, which could unlock substantial value for investors.

2. Amazon

While Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the headline gains, a second major bet — Amazon — has also contributed meaningfully.

Pershing Square bought ~ $1.2 billion worth of Amazon shares in one of its major new moves.
This was part of a portfolio reshuffle: exiting other holdings (such as Canadian Pacific) to free up capital for Amazon.
The thesis: Amazon’s e-commerce business, combined with its high-margin cloud operations (AWS), still offer durable growth even in uncertain macro and tariff environments. Ackman seems to believe that Amazon remains under-discounted given its long-term potential.

What Else Is in the Mix

Other holdings in Pershing Square include Uber, Alphabet, and Restaurant Brands International, among a few others. These have added value but none have matched the outsized returns from Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac.
Ackman has also changed strategy somewhat: giving up short-selling, focusing on "durable growth companies," and taking large, concentrated stakes.

Risks & What Could Go Wrong

While things look strong, there are meaningful risks investors should keep in mind:

Policy & Regulatory Risk: The gains in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are largely contingent on policy changes (e.g. exiting conservatorship, regulatory reform, etc.). If those changes stall or are delayed, the upside could be trimmed or reversed.
Valuation & Concentration Risk: Large positions in a few names can lead to high volatility. If sentiment turns or one of these bets underperforms, the downside could be sizable.
Market/Interest Rate Risk: Mortgage‐related stocks (like FNMA/FRE) are especially sensitive to interest rates, credit conditions, and housing policy. Changes in macroeconomic conditions (rate hikes, inflation, housing market slowdown) could hurt.
Discount to NAV: Pershing Square trades at a discount to its net asset value (NAV), especially for its London-listed shares. This means even though NAV is rising, share price gains may lag or be limited by market sentiment or structural issues.

Takeaways for Investors

High conviction, concentrated bets can pay off when the underlying thesis is strong, as seen with Fnma/Freddie and Amazon.
Understanding the policy environment matters: these real estate finance entities are unique in that their value depends heavily on legislative or regulatory shifts.
Timing matters: Amazon’s dip early in the year tied to tariff fears and broader tech/AI rotations gave Ackman a window to enter.

Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square’s ~25% return in 2025 isn’t magic—it’s the result of placing large, conviction-driven bets on high-potential investments and doing so at key moments. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been the engines of that return, with Amazon providing additional lift. But given the dependencies on policy, interest rates, and concentrated exposure, the path forward may hold more volatility than direction.

Still, for investors who believe in the reform of mortgage finance entities and long-term secular growth in cloud and e-commerce, Ackman’s strategy offers a compelling case study in focusing capital.